The 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections have set the stage for a new political cycle, one that is likely to impact European Union migration policy for the next five years.
This blog explores the policy trends expected to evolve in the coming years in Europe and considers some of the measures companies can put in place to face the uncertainties and potentially politically volatile context ahead.
The European People's Party (EPP) has emerged as the largest parliamentary group, securing a significant number of seats and thus the agenda-setting power. The EPP is followed by other mainstream parties that, despite weaker results compared to the last election, still maintain a significant part of their influence.
At the same time, the election results also indicate a notable rise in far-right parties, which have elected Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) across more EU countries than before. Yet, despite some common agenda points, these parties have ideologies that differ significantly, preventing them from joining forces and influencing policies in a meaningful manner.
The 2024 election winner's immigration manifesto focuses on "controlled" migration and respect for fundamental rights. Their main priorities include strengthening external borders, improving the screening and monitoring of irregular arrivals, expanding Frontex's staff and developing IT and other infrastructure to protect EU borders.
Additionally, they advocate for stronger cooperation with third countries, implementing safe third-country concepts for asylum seekers, and combating illegal migration. The EEP's intent of a more controlled immigration influx—combined with the growing influence of far-right representatives, known for advocating stricter immigration controls and stronger enforcement measures—may lead to a shift of tone in the EP.
Traditionally a progressive institution championing inclusive immigration policies, the EP's future posture on immigration might lean more towards the right and result in a further slowdown of the EU legislative process. This will largely depend on the coalition that will be established in the new EP, as currently, the EPP has the option of looking at their left and engaging with the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew Europe (RE) or creating alliances with more conservative parties.
But the future of the EU's immigration strategy is not only dependent on the EP's position. It will also depend substantially on the appointment of the future European Commission President and Commissioner for Home Affairs. The European Commission is the only institution having the competence to take legislative initiatives, and thus, is in the driving seat of policy making.
Future European Council Presidencies
Beyond this, the upcoming presidencies of the European Council: Hungary (July-December 2024) and Poland (January-June 2025) are expected to have an impact on immigration. These countries have recently adopted several restrictive measures.
For instance, Hungary has increased fines for illegal employment, introduced a highly selective "Hungarian Card" for skilled workers and imposed stricter reporting and compliance requirements. Poland has suspended certain visa programs, proposed limitations on work permit extensions, and introduced severe penalties for non-compliance.
Europe's Skills Shortages and Aging Population
In this new political cycle, European policymakers will have to balance several conflicting objectives. The twin (green and digital) transition is expected to remain high on the EU policy agenda. It requires a skilled workforce that Europe currently does not dispose of.
Europe's aging population aggravates this need as the current labour shortages cannot be filled solely by the existing workforce, underlining the necessity of bringing and retaining talent to sustain economic growth and innovation on the continent.
Expected EU Immigration Policy Trends
What can be expected from this new political cycle? It is unlikely that major or ambitious policy changes in terms of economic migration at the EU level will occur.
Likely, the immigration avenues that currently exist will remain in place, and EU policymakers will focus on finalising negotiations on current open files, such as the EU Talent Pool, and monitoring the implementation of already adopted legislation: Blue Card and Single Permit. Breakthroughs in terms of intra-EU mobility provisions are also unexpected, unless they come from the European Court of Justice, making them therefore difficult to anticipate.
Yet, even more focus on compliance both in terms of immigration, but also in terms of posting of workers, strengthening of border controls and increased exchange of information between authorities and sanctions is to be expected.
Considerations for Global Mobility Professionals and What's Coming Next
Whereas each company has its own challenges and priorities, a few action points emerging from the results of these elections may be relevant to the wide majority of those who employ non-EU talent.
First, invest in IT tools to facilitate compliance. The business traveler population will be much more scrutinized than it currently is. Ensuring compliance for the large volumes of business travelers to Europe is a strenuous task. Therefore, equipping your travel/mobility departments with IT assessment and compliance tools will help your teams limit their involvement to complex travel scenarios only, instead of mainstream cases, reduce costs and business risks. Employment verification tools and work-ready assessment tools could also be very helpful in a context in which several EU countries are pro-actively monitoring post-immigration compliance, but they could also enable your recruiters to verify the work rights of non-EU nationals already available in the domestic labour market.
Second, monitor policy and geo-political trends to anticipate and prepare for them. These may require a reshuffling of your mobility department, reviewing recruitment strategies, creating a workforce pool in Europe, implementing or amending work-ready assessment tools, etc.
Third, engage with policy and decision-makers. Identify the changes your company would benefit from at the domestic and the European level and start a conversation. In our experience, despite the narrative they adopt during political campaigns, policymakers are also pragmatic when the business community presents their needs and past success stories.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
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