Highlights – What You Need To Know
U.S. CONSUMERS: Consumer confidence dropped again in November
- Consumer sentiment for the 4th straight month,
falling 5% in November
- Long-run economic outlook slid 12%, in part due to growing concerns about the negative effects of high interest rates
- Personal disposable income* rose 7.9% in September 2023; consumer expenditures increased 6.8% and were .7% above the previous month
- Total Consumer Debt
- Total household debt increases again Q3-2023 to $17.3 trillion
- Credit card balances remain high and consumer debt continues to grow – consumers ability to make minimum payments and pay off balances is still a concern
- Revolving credit debt up nearly 11% vs. 2022
- Loan Delinquencies
- The delinquency rates for consumer loans has been rising since 2021 and is now at its highest level since 2019, due to a combination of factors, including rising inflation, interest rates, and rising debt load carried by consumers
RETAIL SALES
- September retail sales were down 0.1% from
September 2023, and up 3.5% above last year
- Key hard goods segments continue to show YOY declines, with strong increases in Food Services and Dining (8.6%), Non-Store retail (7.6%), and Health and Personal Care (9.6%); consumers continue to hold off purchases on durable goods
- U.S. Vehicle Sales
- New vehicle sales increased 5.4% YOY, with CPI 2% above LY
- Used vehicles sales (through September) increased 2.7% vs. last year, CPI for used vehicles down 6.6%
- Air travel continues to thrive
- Air travel increased again among U.S. travelers; year-to-date, TSA checkpoint numbers are up 12.7%; the price of air travel was down .9%t MTM, and 13.2% lower than last year - air travel for holidays should match or exceed pre-COVID levels
- Air travel has fully recovered (and now ahead of) pre-COVID activity
Highlights – What You Need To Know
BROAD ECONOMIC INDICATORS: Inflation is slowing but interest rates remain a challenge
- Interest rates: Bank Prime Loan Rate (8.5%) and Federal Funds Rate (5.33%) were unchanged from previous month
- Gross Domestic Product: Q3 GDP increased 4.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations and well above the 2.1% increase in Q1 – the strong Q3 increase was driven in large part by consumer spending
- The Consumer Price Index October Consumer
Price Index for rose 3.2%, with Core CPI up 4.0%
- Motor fuel index was down 5.6%
- Housing increased 5.2% and Food Away From Home rose 5.4%
U.S. EMPLOYMENT: Unemployment remains low
- Unemployment remains below 4%; non-farm employment was up 2.1% month-to-month, with employment rising by 150,000 (1.9%)
HOUSING: Mortgage rates have trended down with inflationary pressures receding; improving economy, improving inflation and lower mortgage rates could bring more homebuyers into the market
- New home sales increased 34% in August, driven largely by shortages of pre-owned inventory; new housing starts were down 7.2% YOY
- The median U.S. home price in September declined 12.3%; MTM the median price was down 3.3%
SUPPLY CHAIN: Freight costs remain stable
- In September, general freight trucking was down 6.2% over last year and increased 2.2% from the previous month
- Deep sea freight rates are down 21.3% YOY and 11.4% lower MTM
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